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July – September isn’t the hangover. It’s the decision window
July 2, 2026
The first quarter of the financial year isn’t quiet. carsales data shows buyer consideration peaked post-EOFY last year. Here's why the brands that stay visible are the ones that win share.
Every year, around this time, I start hearing the same things.
“EOFY is when everyone acts. What’s the quality of the market like afterwards?” “Are we just talking to the EOFY leftovers?” “We’ve just spent a lot and need to pull back.”
I get it. June is loud. EOFY campaigns dominate attention spans and budgets, and when the dust settles, the natural instinct is to catch a breath. But here’s what I keep telling clients, and what the data has confirmed: the buyers didn’t stop. They kept going.
The journey doesn’t end in June
Australia’s Car Buyer Report 2026 is our most comprehensive study of buyer behaviour to date. It maps how Australians actually move through a vehicle purchase, and the picture it paints challenges a lot of H2 planning assumptions.
The average new car buying journey takes six and a half months.1 That’s six and a half months of searching, shortlisting, pausing, rethinking and circling back. Sixty-three per cent of buyers pause or backtrack at some point in that process.2 They don’t abandon their intent, they recalibrate it. For example, buyers may begin in earnest around March or April, they shortlist through May and June, and are still actively deciding well into July, August and September.
Sure, EOFY campaigns create some exits for motivated buyers. It also creates a wave of motivated, considered buyers who are still in market. They’re not leftovers. They’re close, in market active intenders that your brand should be targeting.
What the data actually shows
Forget instinct for a moment. Here’s what actually happened on carsales over the same period last year.
The July–September period in 2025 was a bigger consideration quarter than the April June EOFY period, up 12% quarter-on-quarter AND year-on-year.3 July 2025 ranked as the single highest month for vehicle views across the entire post EOFY period.4
Stock levels increased too. Our internal data shows that thousands more demo, near new and new vehicles came to market compared to the prior quarter and those cars sold faster.5 New cars in particular converted over a week faster than during EOFY.6
More stock. More views. Faster sales. That’s not a quiet market. That’s a market in motion.
When others pull back, your share of voice grows
This is the part I find most compelling, and where the real commercial opportunity sits.
Analysis of brands that ran competitor-level conquesting campaigns on carsales across 2025 showed significant, measurable gains. Mass market brands picked up an average of five position ranks in model views, moving buyers from a competitor’s model to their own.7 Prestige brands saw similar movement, averaging four rank improvements, with direct consideration share captured from rival nameplates.8
July delivers strong return on investment precisely because your budget works harder when consumers are at their most decisive and competitors are at their quietest.
The mechanism is straightforward. When competitors reduce spend and quiet their messaging, the share of attention available to you grows. Every impression works harder because there are fewer competing for buyer eyeballs at the exact moment those buyers are most active. The brands that understand this don’t just hold ground. They take it.
The data has already decided
The assumption driving many H2 planning conversations is that July–September is a commercial write-off, that is simply not supported by what we see.
The buyers are there. The consideration is real. The stock is moving faster than it did during EOFY. And the competitive landscape gets quieter right when buyer intent is peaking.
The brands that emerge from the back half of 2026 in a stronger market position will be the ones that stayed visible when others didn’t. That is not a bold prediction. It is what the numbers already show.
Sourcing
1. carsales Australia's Car Buyer Report 2026, total sample, car buying intenders or recent owners, n=2,008. Respondents asked to estimate time spent at each stage of their purchase journey.
2. carsales Australia's Car Buyer Report 2026, total sample, car buying intenders or recent owners, n=2,008. Q9: At any point during your vehicle purchase process did you stop or pause? Did you go backwards, start over or re-evaluate your decision? Q11: At what point in your purchase process did you stop, pause, start over or re-evaluate?
3. carsales internal data, Prefacts, Apr–Jun 2025 v Jul–Sep 2025.
4. carsales internal data, Prefacts, Apr–Jun 2025 v Jul 2025.
5. carsales internal data, Total cars listed, Apr–Jun 2025 vs Jul–Sep 2025.
6. carsales internal data, Time to delist newcars, Apr 2025 v Jul 2025.
7. carsales internal data, Jan–Dec 2025. Based on analysis of all mass market brands that ran competitor-level conquesting campaigns.
8. carsales internal data, Feb–Dec 2025. Based on analysis of all prestige brands that ran competitor-level conquesting campaigns.
Stock levels increased too. Our internal data shows that thousands more demo, near new and new vehicles came to market compared to the prior quarter and those cars sold faster.5 New cars in particular converted over a week faster than during EOFY.6
More stock. More views. Faster sales. That’s not a quiet market. That’s a market in motion.
When others pull back, your share of voice grows
This is the part I find most compelling, and where the real commercial opportunity sits.
Analysis of brands that ran competitor-level conquesting campaigns on carsales across 2025 showed significant, measurable gains. Mass market brands picked up an average of five position ranks in model views, moving buyers from a competitor’s model to their own.7 Prestige brands saw similar movement, averaging four rank improvements, with direct consideration share captured from rival nameplates.8
July delivers strong return on investment precisely because your budget works harder when consumers are at their most decisive and competitors are at their quietest.
The mechanism is straightforward. When competitors reduce spend and quiet their messaging, the share of attention available to you grows. Every impression works harder because there are fewer competing for buyer eyeballs at the exact moment those buyers are most active. The brands that understand this don’t just hold ground. They take it.
The data has already decided
The assumption driving many H2 planning conversations is that July–September is a commercial write-off, that is simply not supported by what we see.
The buyers are there. The consideration is real. The stock is moving faster than it did during EOFY. And the competitive landscape gets quieter right when buyer intent is peaking.
The brands that emerge from the back half of 2026 in a stronger market position will be the ones that stayed visible when others didn’t. That is not a bold prediction. It is what the numbers already show.
Sourcing
1. carsales Australia's Car Buyer Report 2026, total sample, car buying intenders or recent owners, n=2,008. Respondents asked to estimate time spent at each stage of their purchase journey.
2. carsales Australia's Car Buyer Report 2026, total sample, car buying intenders or recent owners, n=2,008. Q9: At any point during your vehicle purchase process did you stop or pause? Did you go backwards, start over or re-evaluate your decision? Q11: At what point in your purchase process did you stop, pause, start over or re-evaluate?
3. carsales internal data, Prefacts, Apr–Jun 2025 v Jul–Sep 2025.
4. carsales internal data, Prefacts, Apr–Jun 2025 v Jul 2025.
5. carsales internal data, Total cars listed, Apr–Jun 2025 vs Jul–Sep 2025.
6. carsales internal data, Time to delist newcars, Apr 2025 v Jul 2025.
7. carsales internal data, Jan–Dec 2025. Based on analysis of all mass market brands that ran competitor-level conquesting campaigns.
8. carsales internal data, Feb–Dec 2025. Based on analysis of all prestige brands that ran competitor-level conquesting campaigns.
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